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Saturday, August 17, 2013
Mortgage rates rised more than one percent in June
Treasury International Capital (TIC) published
yesterday for June. China and Japan combined sold $42 billion of
treasury security, likely in response to Bernanke's talk of tapering QE.
The sudden rise of mortgage rates in June is certainly influenced
by the two big creditors of the US. World economies are so interlinked
today that policy coordination can not be over emphasized. We live in an
interdependent world.
Why Indians are craving for gold?
India gold imports hit a record 162 metric tons in May as global prices fell, prompting government to impose a duty increase to 8 percent. The government wants to hold bullion imports this year to "well below" last year's figure of 845 metric tons. Indian Prime Minister Singh: "We seem to be investing a lot in unproductive assets." The real problem behind the appetite for gold is India's high inflation, running at 6% currently, and a depreciating Rupee. A slowing economy makes stock investment riskier. Gold becomes the asset of choice for saving.
Monday, April 29, 2013
A knowledge based economy where people live long lives
Labor participant for teenagers 16 to 19 years old are down: from 51% in 2000 to 42% in 2007 before the recession. Youth are staying in school for more years.
At the same time labor participation at old age (65 and up) are up significantly. People are retiring later in life.
This is probably due to the economy has evolved toward automation and knowledge intensive work.
Service robot will replace more and more menial service that teenagers often do.
And if people are graduating with Ph Ds at their 30s, you would like to see them work into their late 60s or early 70s so that investment in human capital has a longer effective life.
At the same time labor participation at old age (65 and up) are up significantly. People are retiring later in life.
This is probably due to the economy has evolved toward automation and knowledge intensive work.
Service robot will replace more and more menial service that teenagers often do.
And if people are graduating with Ph Ds at their 30s, you would like to see them work into their late 60s or early 70s so that investment in human capital has a longer effective life.
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Reflationary Monetary policy
Hard working, frugal men who save by purchasing bonds and holding cash are doomed by central bank's reflationary monetary policy. Inflation will rise and the purchasing power of his saving from frugality will be eroded significantly. It is a sacrifice wasted. Wealth is transferred to the borrower who spend and invest.
Government policy favors investors and consumers. It is especially true with countries that run a big deficit. As an investor you need to watch out for inflation.
Government policy favors investors and consumers. It is especially true with countries that run a big deficit. As an investor you need to watch out for inflation.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
FOMC March statement
"Exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate
at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent,
inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more
than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run
goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well
anchored."
FOMC, March 20, 2013
“I don’t think that I’m the only person in the world who can manage the exit,” Bernanke said
FOMC, March 20, 2013
“I don’t think that I’m the only person in the world who can manage the exit,” Bernanke said
Friday, March 08, 2013
Monday, February 11, 2013
Revisionist historian
Amity Shlaes, conservative ideologue and revisionist historian, who believes cutting taxes will solve all the economy's problem, including government debt caused by severe recession and wars.
Her idea certainly works for the rich and well endowed and that explains her conservative appeal.
If you simply starve the poor to death when they are out of job and short on cash you can reduce government's healthcare and pension cost. Simple logic.
But there is a better solution: tax those who caused the financial crisis to pay for the poor's transition period until they can stand on their own feet. This is a solution that conservatives hate, but a just one.
Fortunately a majority of Americans have the good sense to make that call.
Her idea certainly works for the rich and well endowed and that explains her conservative appeal.
If you simply starve the poor to death when they are out of job and short on cash you can reduce government's healthcare and pension cost. Simple logic.
But there is a better solution: tax those who caused the financial crisis to pay for the poor's transition period until they can stand on their own feet. This is a solution that conservatives hate, but a just one.
Fortunately a majority of Americans have the good sense to make that call.
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
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