Friday, November 11, 2016

History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Financial crisis is a symptom, the underlying economic ailment is what's hurting the society.
When people are hurting, there are behavioral responses that is human nature, which didn't change much over the recorded history.

If we look back at the Great Depression, and the ensuing tariff war, and the following competition for colonies, and the resulting militarism and fascism, I wonder what's in the store down the road for the world? The world is so interconnected today it is hard to imagine we will take the same paths our grandparents did. But given the rise of nationalism worldwide and the recent 2008 financial crisis, the deja vu cannot be ignored.

CFPB to become toothless?

I am wondering if Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the crown jewel of Elizabeth Warren's achievement, will be reformed into toothless SEC like commissioner structure, now that Republicans have both the House and Senate, and the Presidency. Bank stock index rose more than 2% yesterday, which maybe informed by the change of political regulatory environment. The working whites who worked so hard to elect their president may wake up to find the law designed to protect them water down. Wall Street is just too smart and the less fortunate brothers and sisters stand little chance to win. Either way you move Wall Street has a plan to get you.

GOP obstruction on Supreme Court nominee pays off

The injustice on Supreme Court nominee Judge Merrick Garland is hard to bear. Obstructionism will be on the rise due to this precedent. "You did it first."

RMB further appreciation

I think RMB will face renewed pressure from the US to appreciate given president-elect Trump's promise to mid-western state supporters a manufacturing revival .

DOL fiduciary rule on brokers

One possible big winner in the financial industry from Trump's victory is the broker dealers who tried and failed to push back Department of Labor's fiduciary rule on brokers. The rule basically says that small investors cannot tell the difference between a broker and an advisor and therefore they should be treated the same. Before this DOL ruling, advisors have to consider your best interest in determining if an investment is good for you, but commission based brokers do not.